The last time I predicted the result of the general election, at the start of a year in which the polling figures have scarcely changed, I said that the Tories were bound to win the most seats because they had the most money.
This is still, probably and regrettably, true ; but I think the Tories have developed a flaw which may cost them dear. They’ve become un-British. They want, even more than Ukip, to become an English nationalist party - England, in this context, being mainly the Home Counties.
This is why the they have long lost Scotland, Wales and most of the north of England and why, like Labour, which also thinks elections are won in a mystical place called Middle England, they can’t expect to win an overall majority in May. Nobody can. The world has become richer and more complicated than that.
The Tories are ideologically-tied to Anglo-American neo-liberalism and emotionally-tied to the values of southern England. They really can’t hope to win the country, which is not naturally right-wing and is in fact four countries, and five if you include Cornwall, unless they widen their horizons.
Revised general election prediction: It will be a terrible and, if you enjoy that sort of thing, a highly-enjoyable mess.